Lucas Böttcher

Associate Professor of Computational Science • Professor
Lucas Böttcher

Associate Professor of Computational Science

Lucas Böttcher is Associate Professor of Computational Science at the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management.

Lucas received his PhD in applied mathematics and computational physics from ETH Zürich in 2018. Prior to his appointment at the Frankfurt School, he worked as a lecturer at the Institute for Theoretical Physics at ETH Zürich, where he taught courses in computational and statistical physics. In 2020, he joined the Department of Computational Medicine and Biomathematics at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), as a research scientist and fellow of the Swiss National Science Foundation. Lucas has also worked in the private sector as a computational scientist in the Digital Solutions Group of Leoni AG, a leading wire and cable manufacturer.

His research develops and utilizes numerical and analytical methods to address a wide range of applied problems. He is also interested in fundamental questions in applied and computational mathematics, statistical mechanics, and machine learning. His current research focuses on the modeling and control of high-dimensional stochastic processes and dynamical systems, the development of network analysis methods, and data assimilation systems that link mechanistic models with empirical data.

His research has attracted attention from major media outlets, including the Wall Street Journal, The Economist, Harvard Business Review, and Süddeutsche Zeitung. It has also been featured in the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Collection of the American Physical Society, news publications by ETH Zürich, UCLA, and Caltech, as well as KPCC's AirTalk with Larry Mantle. His work on international student mobility was mentioned in a policy report by the European Parliament. His research contributions to addressing the opioid epidemic were also mentioned in the UN World Drug Report 2024.

Lucas Böttcher is an editor of the journals Nonlinear Dynamics and International Journal of Modern Physics C. He received the Springer Nature Best Editor Award for his editorial work with Nonlinear Dynamics.

For more information about his research, including a complete list of publications, please visit his website.

 
  1. Computational Science & Philosophy Department
  2. Professor
  3. Faculty

PUBLICATIONS

Owusu-Boaitey, N., Böttcher, L., Meyerowitz-Katz, G., Howard, J., Gorski, D., Besançon, L., Barchuk, A., 2026. Agreement between seroprevalence- and model-based estimates of COVID-19 burden, Global Health Action Vol. 19(1, 2683286).

Böttcher, L., 2026. Control of dynamical systems with neural networks, Nonlinear Dynamics Vol. 114(79).

Saha, P., Böttcher, L., Gonze, D., Zhou, X., Bernaerts, K., Faust, K., 2026. Effects of common antibiotics on representative gut bacterial strains associated with inflammatory bowel disease, BMC Microbiology. (forthcoming)

Owusu-Boaitey, N., Meyer, M., Herrera-Esposito, D., Böttcher, L., Lukz, M., Cook, S., Stoto, M., Kraemer, J., 2026. Estimating COVID-19 cumulative incidence from seroprevalence surveys accounting for time-varying seroreversion: A fully Bayesian methodology, Epidemiology and Infection Vol. 154(e137).

Pagani, L., León-Sampedro, R., Böttcher, L., et al., 2026. Modelling the role of the microbiome in antimicrobial resistance across scales, Nature Microbiology Vol. 11, pp. 1786-1799.

Böttcher, L., D'Orsogna, M., Chou, T., 2025. Aggregating multiple test results to improve medical decision-making, PLOS Computational Biology Vol. 21(1,e1012749).

Wong, T., Böttcher, L., Chou, T., D'Orsogna, M., 2025. Alcohol-induced deaths in the United States across age, race, gender, geography, and the COVID-19 pandemic, PLOS Global Public Health Vol. 5(9).

Böttcher, L., Porter, M., 2025. Clustering-induced localization of quantum walks on networks, Physical Review E Vol. 112(6, L062301).

Böttcher, L., Fonseca, L., Laubenbacher, R., 2025. Control of medical digital twins with artificial neural networks, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Series A, Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences Vol. 383.

Böttcher, L., Felder, S., 2025. Determining the optimal sequence of multiple tests, Statistics in Medicine Vol. 44(23-24).

Böttcher, L., Porter, M., 2025. Dynamical Processes on Metric Networks, SIAM Journal on Applied Dynamical Systems Vol. 24(4), pp. 2848-2885.

Ge, Y., Böttcher, L., Chou, T., D'Orsogna, M., 2025. Efficient portfolio selection through preference aggregation with Quicksort and the Bradley-Terry model, Journal of Computational Science Vol. 92(102728).

Fonseca, L., Böttcher, L., Mehrad, B., Laubenbacher, R., 2025. Optimal control of agent-based models via surrogate modeling, PLOS Computational Biology Vol. 21(1,1012138).

Böttcher, L., Klingebiel, R., 2025. Organizational selection of innovation, Organization Science Vol. 36(1), pp. 387-410.

Zhang, J., Li, X., Guo, X., You, Z., Böttcher, L., Mogilner, A., Hoffmann, A., Chou, T., Xia, M., 2025. Reconstructing noisy gene regulation dynamics using extrinsic-noise-driven neural stochastic differential equations, PLOS Computational Biology Vol. 21(9).

Li, J., Asikis, T., Fragkos, I., Böttcher, L., 2025. idinn: A Python Package for Inventory-Dynamics Control with Neural Networks, The Journal of Open Source Software Vol. 10(112), pp. 8508-8513.

Böttcher, L., Porter, M., 2024. Complex networks with complex weights, Physical Review E Vol. 109(2, 024314).

Böttcher, L., Chou, T., D`Orsogna, M., 2024. Forecasting drug-overdose mortality by age in the United States at the national and county levels, PNAS Nexus Vol. 3(2 ).

Owusu-Boaitey, N., Böttcher, L., He, D., Erkhembayare, R., Yang, L., et al., 2024. Impact of cross-reactivity and herd immunity on SARS-CoV-2 pandemic severity, Infectious Diseases.

Böttcher, L., Wheeler, G., 2024. Visualizing high-dimensional loss landscapes with Hessian directions, Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment (023401).

Böttcher, L., Asikis, T., Fragkos, I., 2023. Control of Dual-Sourcing Inventory Systems Using Recurrent Neural Networks, INFORMS Journal on Computing.

D'Orsogna, M., Böttcher, L., Chou, T., 2023. Fentanyl-driven acceleration of racial, gender and geographical disparities in drug overdose deaths in the United States, PLOS Global Public Health Vol. 3(3, e0000769).

Böttcher, L., Breedvelt, J., Warren, F., Segal, Z., Kuyken, W., Bockting, C., 2023. Identifying relapse predictors in individual participant data with decision trees, BMC Psychiatry Vol. 23(835).

Masoomy, H., Chou, T., Böttcher, L., 2023. Impact of random and targeted disruptions on information diffusion during outbreaks, Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science Vol. 33(3, 033145).

Böttcher, L., Wald, S., Chou, T., 2023. Mathematical Characterization of Private and Public Immune Receptor Sequences, Bulletin of Mathematical Biology Vol. 85.

Böttcher, L., Chou, T., D'Orsogna, M., 2023. Modeling and forecasting age-specific drug overdose mortality in the United States, The European Physical Journal Special Topics.

Xia, M., Böttcher, L., Chou, T., 2023. Spectrally adapted physics-informed neural networks for solving unbounded domain problems, Machine Learning: Science and Technology Vol. 4(2, 025024).

Wernli, D., Böttcher, L., Vanackere, F., Kaspiarovich, Y., Masood, M., Levrat, N., 2023. Understanding and governing global systemic crises in the 21st century: a complexity perspective, Global Policy (00) pp. 1-22.

Böttcher, L., Gersbach, H., 2022. A Refunding Scheme to Incentivize Narrow-Spectrum Antibiotic Development, Bulletin of Mathematical Biology Vol. 84(Article number: 59).

Böttcher, L., Antulov-Fantulin, N., Asikis, T., 2022. AI Pontryagin or how artificial neural networks learn to control dynamical systems, Nature Communications Vol. 13(Article-No. 333).

Xia, M., Böttcher, L., Chou, T., 2022. Controlling epidemics through optimal allocation of test kits and vaccine doses across networks, IEEE Transactions on Network Science and Engineering Vol. 9(3), pp. 1422-1436.

Schneider, T., Dunbar, O., Wu, J., Böttcher, L., Burov, D., Garbuno-Inigo, A., Wagner, G., Pei, S., Daraio, C., Ferrari, R., Shaman, J., 2022. Epidemic management and control through risk-dependent individual contact interventions, PLOS Computational Biology.

Böttcher, L., Kernell, G., 2022. Examining the limits of the Condorcet Jury Theorem: Tradeoffs in hierarchical information aggregation systems, Collective Intelligence Vol. 1(2).

Böttcher, L., Asikis, T., 2022. Near-optimal control of dynamical systems with neural ordinary differential equations, Machine Learning: Science and Technology Vol. 3(4).

Asikis, T., Böttcher, L., Antulov-Fantulin, N., 2022. Neural ordinary differential equation control of dynamics on graphs, Physical Review Research Vol. 4(1, 013221).

Antulov-Fantulin, N., Böttcher, L., 2022. On the accuracy of short-term COVID-19 fatality forecasts, BMC Infectious Diseases Vol. 22(Article-No. 251).

Böttcher, L., Gersbach, H., Wernli, D., 2022. Restoring the antibiotic R&D market to combat the resistance crisis, Science and Public Policy Vol. 49(1), pp. 127-131.

Böttcher, L., D'Orsogna, M., Chou, T., 2021. A statistical model of COVID-19 testing in populations: effects of sampling bias and testing errors, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Series A, Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences Vol. 380(2214).

Wernli, D., Clausin, M., Antulov-Fantulin, N., Berezowski, J., Biller-Andorno, N., Blanchet, K., Böttcher, L., Burton-Jeangros, C., Escher, G., Flahault, A., Helbing, D., et al., 2021. Building a multisystemic understanding of societal resilience to the COVID-19 pandemic, BMJ Global Health Vol. 6(Article-No. e006794).

Böttcher, L., Porter, M., 2021. Classical and Quantum Random-Walk Centrality Measures in Multilayer Networks, SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics Vol. 81(6), pp. 2704-2724.

Böttcher, L., Nagler, J., 2021. Decisive conditions for strategic vaccination against SARS-CoV-2, Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science Vol. 31(Article-No. 101105).

Wald, S., Böttcher, L., 2021. From classical to quantum walks with stochastic resetting on networks, Physical Review E Vol. 103(Article-No. 012122).

Böttcher, L., D`Orsogna, M., Chou, T., 2021. Using excess deaths and testing statistics to determine COVID-19 mortalities, European Journal of Epidemiology Jg. 36, pp. 545-558.

Böttcher, L., 2020. A Random-Line-Graph Approach to Overlapping Line Segments, Journal of Complex Networks Vol. 8(Article-No. cnaa029).

Richter, P., Henkel, M., Böttcher, L., 2020. Aging and relaxation in bistable contagion dynamics, Physical Review E Vol. 102(Article-No. 042308).

Böttcher, L., Montealegre, P., Goles, E., Gersbach, H., 2020. Competing activists - Political polarization, Physica A Vol. 545(Article-No. 123713).

D'Angelo, F., Böttcher, L., 2020. Learning the Ising Model with Generative Neutral Networks, Physical Review Research Vol. 2(Article-No. 023266).

Böttcher, L., Gersbach, H., 2020. The Great Divide: Drivers of Polarization in the US Public, EPJ Data Science Vol. 9(Article-No. 32).

Hoferer, M., Böttcher, L., Herrmann, H., Gersbach, H., 2020. The impact of technologies in political campaigns, Physica A Vol. 538(Article-No. 122795).

Böttcher, L., Antulov-Fantulin, N., 2020. Unifying continuous, discrete, and hybrid susceptible-infected-recovered processes on networks, Physical Review Research Vol. 2(Article-No. 033121).

Böttcher, L., Xia, M., Chou, T., 2020. Why case fatality ratios can be misleading: individual- and population-based mortality estimates and factors influencing them, Physical Biology Vol. 17(Article-No. 065003).

Xu, S., Böttcher, L., Chou, T., 2019. Diversity in Biology: definitions, quantification, and models, Physical Biology Vol. 16.

Strub, S., Böttcher, L., 2019. Modeling deformed transmission lines for continuous strain sensing applications, Measurement Science and Technology Vol. 31(3).

Nauer, S., Böttcher, L., Porter, M., 2019. Random-Graph Models and Characterization of Granular Networks, Journal of Complex Networks Vol. 7, pp. 1-27.

Böttcher, L., Herrmann, H., Gersbach, H., 2018. Clout, activists and budget: The road to presidency, PLoS ONE.

Böttcher, L., Herrmann, H., Henkel, M., 2018. Dynamical universality of the contact process, Journal of Physics A Vol. 51(12).

Böttcher, L., Nagler, J., Herrmann, H., 2017. Critical behaviors in contagion dynamics, Physical Review Letters Vol. 118(8).

Böttcher, L., Lukovic, M., Nagler, J., Havlin, S., Herrmann, H., 2017. Failure and recovery in dynamical networks, Scientific Reports Vol. 7.

Böttcher, L., Andrade Jr., J., Herrmann, H., 2017. Targeted Recovery as an Effective Strategy against Epidemic Spreading, Scientific Reports Vol. 7.

Böttcher, L., Woolley-Meza, O., Brockmann, D., 2017. Temporal dynamics of online petitions, PLoS ONE Vol. 12(5).

Böttcher, L., Woolley-Meza, O., Goles, E., Helbing, D., Herrmann, H., 2016. Connectivity disruption sparks explosive epidemic spreading, Physical Review E Vol. 93.

Böttcher, L., Araujo, N., Nagler, J., Mendes, J., Helbing, D., Herrmann, H., 2016. Gender Gap in the ERASMUS Mobility Program, PLoS ONE Vol. 11(2).

Böttcher, L., Woolley-Meza, O., Araujo, N., Herrmann, H., Helbing, D., 2015. Disease-induced resource constraints can trigger explosive epidemics, Scientific Reports Vol. 5(16571).

Mani, R., Böttcher, L., Herrmann, H., Helbing, D., 2014. Extreme power law in a driven many-particle system without threshold dynamics, Physical Review E Vol. 90(4).

Böttcher, L., 2023, Gradient-free training of neural ODEs for system identification and control using ensemble Kalman inversion, in: ICML Workshop on New Frontiers in Learning, Control, and Dynamical Systems.

Böttcher, L., Herrmann, H., 2021. Computional Statistical Physics, Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press.

Böttcher, L., Wheeler, G., 2024, Statistical Mechanics and Artificial Neural Networks: Principles, Models, and Applications, in: Order, Disorder and Criticality: Advanced Problems of Phase Transition Theory. - Vol. 8, Singapore: World Scientific Press, pp. 1-45.

Böttcher, L., 2022, Contagion Dynamics in Complex Networks, in: Automata and Complexity,: Essays presented to Eric Goles on the occasion of his 70th birthday, Cham: Springer, pp. 75-82.

Klingebiel, R., Böttcher, L., 2024. How to Decide Which Innovation Projects to Greenlight, Harvard Business Review.

Owusu-Boaitey, N., Meyer, M., Herrera Espósito, D., Böttcher, L., Lukz, M., Cook, S., Stoto, M., Kraemer, J., 2026. Estimating COVID-19 Cumulative Incidence from Seroprevalence Surveys accounting for Time-Varying Seroreversion: A Fully Bayesian Methodology.

Böttcher, L., Gersbach, H., 2020. A Refunding Scheme to Incentivize Narrow-Spectrum Antibiotic Development, CEPR Discussion Papers No. DP15512.

Lucas Böttcher

Associate Professor of Computational Science
0049 69 154008 466
Lucas Böttcher

Mago Konopnicka

Assistant
069 154008-849
Mago Konopnicka

OFFICE HOURS

During the lecture period

By appointment available upon request via email.

Room

A5.10

OFFICE HOURS

During the lecture period

By appointment available upon request via email.

Room

A5.10